"""Risk Factor Summation Method""" from typing import Dict, Any from enum import Enum import sys class RiskFactor(Enum): """12 standard risk factors""" MANAGEMENT = "management" STAGE_OF_BUSINESS = "stage_of_business" LEGISLATION_POLITICAL = "legislation_political" MANUFACTURING = "manufacturing" SALES_MARKETING = "sales_marketing" FUNDING_CAPITAL = "funding_capital" COMPETITION = "competition" TECHNOLOGY = "technology" LITIGATION = "litigation" INTERNATIONAL = "international" REPUTATION = "reputation" LUCRATIVE_EXIT = "lucrative_exit" class RiskFactorSummation: """Risk Factor Summation Method for startup valuation""" def __init__(self, base_valuation: float, adjustment_per_factor: float = 250_000): self.base_valuation = base_valuation self.adjustment_per_factor = adjustment_per_factor self.risk_descriptions = { RiskFactor.MANAGEMENT: "Quality and experience of management team", RiskFactor.STAGE_OF_BUSINESS: "Development stage and operational maturity", RiskFactor.LEGISLATION_POLITICAL: "Regulatory and political risk exposure", RiskFactor.MANUFACTURING: "Production and supply chain risk", RiskFactor.SALES_MARKETING: "Go-to-market and customer acquisition risk", RiskFactor.FUNDING_CAPITAL: "Future financing and capital needs risk", RiskFactor.COMPETITION: "Competitive intensity and market dynamics", RiskFactor.TECHNOLOGY: "Technical execution and IP protection risk", RiskFactor.LITIGATION: "Legal disputes and liability exposure", RiskFactor.INTERNATIONAL: "Cross-border and currency risk", RiskFactor.REPUTATION: "Brand and reputational risk", RiskFactor.LUCRATIVE_EXIT: "Exit opportunity and liquidity risk" } def assess_risk_factor(self, factor: RiskFactor, risk_level: int) -> float: """ Assess single risk factor Args: factor: RiskFactor enum risk_level: -2 (very high risk) to +2 (very low risk, adds value) 0 = neutral/average risk Returns: Valuation adjustment for this factor """ if not -2 <= risk_level <= 2: raise ValueError("Risk level must be between -2 and +2") return risk_level * self.adjustment_per_factor def calculate_valuation(self, risk_assessments: Dict[RiskFactor, int]) -> Dict[str, Any]: """ Calculate valuation using risk factor summation Args: risk_assessments: Dict mapping RiskFactor to risk_level (-2 to +2) Returns: Complete valuation breakdown """ factor_adjustments = {} total_adjustment = 0 for factor in RiskFactor: risk_level = risk_assessments.get(factor, 0) adjustment = self.assess_risk_factor(factor, risk_level) factor_adjustments[factor.value] = { 'risk_level': risk_level, 'adjustment': adjustment, 'description': self.risk_descriptions[factor] } total_adjustment += adjustment final_valuation = self.base_valuation + total_adjustment return { 'method': 'Risk Factor Summation', 'base_valuation': self.base_valuation, 'risk_assessments': factor_adjustments, 'total_adjustment': total_adjustment, 'final_valuation': max(0, final_valuation), 'adjustment_pct': (total_adjustment / self.base_valuation * 100) if self.base_valuation else 0 } def quick_assessment(self, base_valuation: float, management_risk: int, stage_risk: int, technology_risk: int, competition_risk: int, market_risk: int, funding_risk: int) -> Dict[str, Any]: """Quick assessment with key risk factors""" assessments = { RiskFactor.MANAGEMENT: management_risk, RiskFactor.STAGE_OF_BUSINESS: stage_risk, RiskFactor.TECHNOLOGY: technology_risk, RiskFactor.COMPETITION: competition_risk, RiskFactor.SALES_MARKETING: market_risk, RiskFactor.FUNDING_CAPITAL: funding_risk, RiskFactor.LEGISLATION_POLITICAL: 0, RiskFactor.MANUFACTURING: 0, RiskFactor.LITIGATION: 0, RiskFactor.INTERNATIONAL: 0, RiskFactor.REPUTATION: 0, RiskFactor.LUCRATIVE_EXIT: 0 } self.base_valuation = base_valuation return self.calculate_valuation(assessments) def risk_scoring_guide(self) -> Dict[str, Any]: """Get risk scoring guidelines""" return { 'risk_levels': { '+2': 'Very Low Risk / Significant Positive (+$500K)', '+1': 'Below Average Risk / Positive (+$250K)', '0': 'Average Risk / Neutral ($0)', '-1': 'Above Average Risk / Negative (-$250K)', '-2': 'Very High Risk / Significant Negative (-$500K)' }, 'factor_guidelines': { 'Management': { '+2': 'Serial successful entrepreneurs, complete A-team', '+1': 'Strong relevant experience, mostly complete team', '0': 'Some relevant experience, gaps in team', '-1': 'Limited experience, significant gaps', '-2': 'First-time founders, incomplete team' }, 'Technology': { '+2': 'Proven technology, strong IP protection', '+1': 'Working prototype, some IP', '0': 'Early-stage technology, uncertain IP', '-1': 'Unproven technology, weak IP', '-2': 'Technology risk very high, no IP' }, 'Competition': { '+2': 'Clear differentiation, high barriers', '+1': 'Good positioning, some barriers', '0': 'Competitive market, moderate barriers', '-1': 'Intense competition, low barriers', '-2': 'Dominated by incumbents, no barriers' } } } def sensitivity_analysis(self, base_assessments: Dict[RiskFactor, int], variable_factor: RiskFactor) -> Dict[str, Any]: """Analyze valuation sensitivity to single risk factor""" results = [] for risk_level in [-2, -1, 0, 1, 2]: test_assessments = base_assessments.copy() test_assessments[variable_factor] = risk_level valuation = self.calculate_valuation(test_assessments) results.append({ 'risk_level': risk_level, 'valuation': valuation['final_valuation'], 'adjustment': valuation['total_adjustment'] }) return { 'variable_factor': variable_factor.value, 'sensitivity_data': results, 'base_valuation': self.base_valuation } def main(): """CLI entry point - outputs JSON for C++ integration""" import json if len(sys.argv) < 2: result = {"success": False, "error": "No command specified"} print(json.dumps(result)) sys.exit(1) command = sys.argv[1] try: if command == "risk_factor": if len(sys.argv) < 4: raise ValueError("Base valuation and risk assessments required") base_valuation = float(sys.argv[2]) risk_assessments = json.loads(sys.argv[3]) rfs = RiskFactorSummation(base_valuation=base_valuation) # Map all frontend key variants to RiskFactor enum values enum_key_map = { # management 'management': RiskFactor.MANAGEMENT, 'management_risk': RiskFactor.MANAGEMENT, # stage 'stage': RiskFactor.STAGE_OF_BUSINESS, 'stage_of_business': RiskFactor.STAGE_OF_BUSINESS, 'stage_risk': RiskFactor.STAGE_OF_BUSINESS, # legislation/political 'legislation': RiskFactor.LEGISLATION_POLITICAL, 'legislation_political': RiskFactor.LEGISLATION_POLITICAL, # manufacturing 'manufacturing': RiskFactor.MANUFACTURING, # sales/marketing 'sales_marketing': RiskFactor.SALES_MARKETING, 'sales_risk': RiskFactor.SALES_MARKETING, 'market_risk': RiskFactor.SALES_MARKETING, 'marketing': RiskFactor.SALES_MARKETING, # funding 'funding': RiskFactor.FUNDING_CAPITAL, 'funding_risk': RiskFactor.FUNDING_CAPITAL, 'funding_capital': RiskFactor.FUNDING_CAPITAL, # competition 'competition': RiskFactor.COMPETITION, 'competition_risk': RiskFactor.COMPETITION, # technology 'technology': RiskFactor.TECHNOLOGY, 'technology_risk': RiskFactor.TECHNOLOGY, # litigation 'litigation': RiskFactor.LITIGATION, # international 'international': RiskFactor.INTERNATIONAL, # reputation 'reputation': RiskFactor.REPUTATION, # exit 'exit': RiskFactor.LUCRATIVE_EXIT, 'lucrative_exit': RiskFactor.LUCRATIVE_EXIT, } enum_assessments = {} for k, v in risk_assessments.items(): rf = enum_key_map.get(k) if rf: enum_assessments[rf] = int(v) # Fill missing with 0 (average) for rf in RiskFactor: if rf not in enum_assessments: enum_assessments[rf] = 0 valuation = rfs.calculate_valuation(enum_assessments) result = {"success": True, "data": valuation} print(json.dumps(result)) else: result = {"success": False, "error": f"Unknown command: {command}"} print(json.dumps(result)) sys.exit(1) except Exception as e: result = {"success": False, "error": str(e)} print(json.dumps(result)) sys.exit(1) if __name__ == '__main__': main()